Will Holiday Spending Impact Real Estate This Year?

Holiday Retail Sales: ​Will Rising Sentiment Support Spending?

• Holiday Retail Sales Forecasts Call For Modest Growth This Year

  • Holiday retail sales are a crucial part of the commercial real estate performance landscape, and have downstream impacts on retail and industrial properties, self-storage and even the housing market

  • National Retail Federation (NRF) and International Council for Shopping Centers (ICSC) forecast holiday sales growth between +2.5% and +3.5% this year

  • However, the growth forecasts range from -0.1% to +0.8% when accounting for inflation

• Consumer Finances Are Strong, Supporting Spending Outlooks

  • U.S. employment at a record high, with 159 million jobs as of October

  • Wages are up significantly since 2019, balancing out recent increases in consumer debt

  • Inflation-adjusted savings levels are $4 trillion higher than February 2020

• Sentiment And Confidence Remain Key Spending Drivers

  • Consumer confidence and sentiment are improving but remain below pre-pandemic levels

  • Post-election positivity may boost short-term sentiment, supporting holiday retail sales

  • Strong holiday sales would also be a positive signal for retail properties and rental housing demand​

* Forecast
Store-based sales exclude non-store retailers, restaurants, gas and auto dealers; Forecast from NRF & ICSC; holiday spending Nov. & Dec.

Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, National Retail Federation, ICSC

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