What the Yield Curve Inversion Means for CRE
What Yield Curve Inversion Means for CRE Markets
3-Month Treasury Yield Rises Above The 10-Year
The 3-month and 10-year treasury yield curve inverted last week, signaling heightened risk of an impending recession
An inverted yield curve is not a foolproof indicator. A recession followed 8 of the last 10 inversions
Expectations Point Toward A Mild Downturn If One Occurs
Economists continue to forecast very mild decreases in economic growth for the first two quarters of 2023
The most significant factor influencing recession risk has been hawkish Federal Reserve policy in response to elevated inflation
CRE Investors Should Keep Long-Term Outcomes In Mind
Intense media discussion of downside risk can weigh on investor sentiment, often pushing investors to the sidelines, but downturns are followed by growth that generally lifts CRE performance
The weakened short-term economic outlook offers investors an opportunity to calibrate their strategies to capitalize on the next expansion cycle
*Through October 27
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve
