Is Economy Slowing?

Written By Marc Nicholson

Navigating Economic Uncertainty: Breaking Down the Data​​

Economic Growth Outlook Faces Headwinds​

  • The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank GDP forecast for Q1 2025 predicts a -1.5% contraction, triggering concerns​

  • Businesses stockpiled goods ahead of potential tariffs, which is weighing on economic growth​

  • Despite the negative Q1 outlook, economic growth could rebound in Q2, potentially reaching 4%, as trade normalizes​

Uncertainty Surges to Its Highest Level Since the Pandemic​

  • Economic uncertainty has spiked, reflecting concerns over negative GDP growth, government downsizing, and Federal policy shifts.​

  • Driven by political divide, consumer sentiment fell sharply from 71.1 to 64.7 in February, its lowest reading since November 2023​

Consumers and Businesses Adjust to Policy Shifts​

  • Consumers are spending less and saving more, with the savings rate rising from 3.5% in December to 4.6% in January​

  • Retailers and manufacturers rushed to import goods before tariffs take effect, distorting economic data for early 2025​

*Through February 2025​
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a measure of policy-related economic uncertainty, derived from the ​frequency of news articles discussing economic policy uncertainty in leading U.S. newspapers. Higher values indicate greater uncertainty​ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, , Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis.​

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Marc Nicholson
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