How Changing Behavior is Reshaping CRE

Written By Marc Nicholson

WHAT SHIFTING MIGRATION TRENDS MEAN FOR CRE PERFORMANCE​

Population Migration Slowing After Post-Pandemic Bounce​

  • The number of monthly movers has fallen to near zero in the summer of 2024 ​

  • This is a slowing of record levels of population movement from coastal states to Sunbelt states from 2020-2023​

Developers Assumed Migration Would Continue​

  • Development pipelines in Sunbelt areas, that grew the most quickly since 2019, are near record highs for 2024​

  • These metros could see vacancy rise in the near-term as new builds come online and inbound migration cools​

Coastal and Midwest Construction Near All-Time Lows​

  • As developers looked at demographic shifts, new inventory expected to complete in places like California and the Midwest​

  • This creates an opportunity in some of the least discussed metros in the country if investors maintain long-term outlooks​

*Through April ​
Includes New York, Los Angeles, The Bay Area, and Chicago​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Placer.AI​

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Marc Nicholson
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